It’s baffling, frustrating, and frankly, a bit unfair—Lucas Giolito, a proven starter who anchored the Red Sox rotation in 2025, remains unsigned as spring training kicks into gear. How is this even possible? Let’s break it down.
Giolito, a 31-year-old right-hander, wasn’t just a filler in Boston’s lineup. He was a cornerstone, posting a solid 3.41 ERA across 145 innings and 26 starts, forming a formidable trio alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. Yet, as teams finalize their rosters in Florida and Arizona, Giolito’s name is conspicuously absent from any contract announcements. And this is the part most people miss: it’s not about his health or performance. Giolito’s offseason has been normal, with no lingering effects from the elbow injury that sidelined him during Boston’s postseason run. So, what gives?
Crochet, Giolito’s former teammate, didn’t hold back his frustration. “It’s insane,” he said. “Very insane.” But here’s where it gets controversial: Crochet points to a systemic issue in the free agent market. “The middle of the market gets screwed,” he explained. Players like Giolito—not quite the top-tier stars but far from mediocre—often find themselves in limbo, signing late or settling for less than they’re worth. Is this a fair assessment, or is there more to the story?
This offseason, the market for starting pitchers has been active, with big names securing lucrative deals. Dylan Cease landed a massive $210 million contract with Toronto, while Ranger Suárez, Framber Valdez, and others inked significant agreements. Giolito, meanwhile, has been linked to teams like the Orioles, Tigers, and Braves, but no deal has materialized. Why? Crochet suggests it might be about fit and timing. “Maybe he’s waiting for a team that’s actually trying to win,” he speculated. But is that enough to explain the delay, or are teams undervaluing Giolito’s proven track record?
Here’s the kicker: Giolito’s 2025 performance wasn’t just good—it was impactful. During an 18-start stretch from May to August, he went 9-1 with a 2.66 ERA, pitching like an ace. Yet, his advanced metrics weren’t eye-popping. His strikeout rate dipped, and his Baseball Savant page didn’t scream “superstar.” But as Crochet pointed out, sometimes the eye test matters more than the numbers. “A lot of guys never figure it out at the big league level,” he said. “Giolito has.”
And this is where it gets thought-provoking: Are teams too focused on analytics, overlooking players like Giolito who deliver results despite less flashy stats? Crochet compared Giolito to younger, harder-throwing prospects like Shane Baz, who might look better on paper but lack Giolito’s proven MLB success. “As a GM, I get why you’d want the younger guy,” Crochet admitted. “But there’s something to be said for experience and reliability.”
The Red Sox, for their part, didn’t push hard to re-sign Giolito, instead opting for Suárez and trades for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo. But Crochet, who played with Giolito in Chicago from 2020-2024, is rooting for his friend to land a deal soon. “It was tough to watch him end the year on the IL,” Crochet said. “I grew a huge appreciation for his work ethic and what he does off the field.”
So, here’s the question for you: Is Lucas Giolito being overlooked because of a flawed market system, or are teams making the right call by prioritizing younger, higher-upside players? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments—this is a debate worth having.
